Dormancy to Budburst: Extreme Lows

Summary:
During the winter, winegrapes enter the dormancy stage of their seasonal lifecycle. As the air temperature cools throughout the winter months, the risk for extreme cold injury increases. A useful metric to account for the risk of cold injury is the minimum daily temperatures that the plants may experience. The projected minimum temperature anomalies between December to March are displayed below. Mean Minimum Daily Temperature anomalies are displayed for both March and April for the Okanagan Valley of British Columbia, Canada.

More information about these maps can be found below, here. 

Minimum Temperatures: December to March

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Value Comparison Legend:
MW: Moderate Warming Scenario
HW: High Warming Scenario
Value ComparisonLegend: MW: Moderate Warming Scenario HW: High Warming Scenario SD: Standard Deviation

Mean Minimum Daily Temperatures: March

Features: Zoom Control: Zoom Measuring Tool: Zoom Layer Control: Zoom
Value Comparison Legend:
MW: Moderate Warming Scenario
HW: High Warming Scenario
Value Comparison Legend: MW: Moderate Warming Scenario HW: High Warming Scenario SD: Standard Deviation

Mean Minimum Daily Temperatures: April

Features: Zoom Control: Zoom Measuring Tool: Zoom Layer Control: Zoom
Value Comparison Legend:
MW: Moderate Warming Scenario
HW: High Warming Scenario
Value Comparison Legend:
MW: Moderate Warming Scenario
HW: High Warming Scenario

More Information

Anomalies:
Anomalies are a metric which highlight the change in a variable from the recent historical average (1970 – 1989). Positive values indicate a projected increase from the past.

Warming Scenarios:
Two warming scenarios are represented in the data. The Moderate Warming (MW) and High Warming (HW) scenarios are represented by averaging the data for the periods of years between 2040 – 2059 and 2070 – 2089, respectively. These warming scenarios represent two instances in the spectrum of potential climate realizations.

Average Anomalies (Warming Scenario – Historical):

    • Minimum Temperature:
      • December to March: historical average temperature is -6.5 °C, with warming temperatures rise:
          • Moderate Warming: 4.9 °C
          • High Warming: 7.1 °C
    • Mean Minimum Daily Temperature:
      • March: historical average temperature is -1.0 °C, with warming temperatures rise:
          • Moderate Warming: 5.0 °C
          • High Warming: 7.7 °C
      • April: historical average temperature is 2.2 °C, with warming temperatures rise:
          • Moderate Warming: 4.6 °C
          • High Warming: 7.4 °C

General Circulation Models (GCMs):
We leverage prediction from General Circulation Models (GCMs) created by climate scientists worldwide. These models are designed to predict how environments are likely to change using atmospheric physics to project future temperatures, precipitation, and more variables for different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, each scenario is categorized by Representative Concentration Pathways, summarizing how emissions change through 2100. The RCP with the greatest emissions (RCP 8.5) was used to generate the data shown in the maps. A consensus on climate variables was reached by using an ensemble of 15 GCMs.